Why the four-year gaming cycle may not apply to simulators at all!

A current data-based analysis of Steam tags comes to the conclusion that many gaming trends go through an upswing of about four years on average. In doing so, it distinguishes between short-term hypes, fashionable genre phases and more stable classics.

However, especially in the simulation genre, it is worth taking a closer and more critical look here.

Because from my point of view, simulations often function structurally differently from classic hype genres. A battle royale, a survival hype or a roguelike can grow very strongly very quickly and flatten out just as quickly. In simulators, on the other hand, we often see a different pattern: slow start, steady expansion and very long stability.

This is exactly where Euro Truck Simulator 2 is a very strong example. The game was released back in 2012 and is therefore active far beyond the mentioned four-year period. At the same time, it still records high player numbers, continuous DLC releases and exceptionally strong long-term retention.

This is not a classic pattern of a short-term trend. Rather, today the game almost appears more like an ongoing ecosystem than a single title.

A similar picture can be seen with OMSI 2. This title has also been on the market for many years and remains strongly present within the community. New maps, add-ons, mods and community projects ensure that older simulations do not simply lose relevance.

This is exactly where, from an analytical point of view, perhaps the most important difference lies: simulators often follow not trend cycles, but rather infrastructure cycles.

Players here do not only invest time, but often also invest long-term in their setup and their personal game ecosystem. This includes DLCs, mods, maps, hardware such as steering wheels or controllers, routines, favorite routes and habits. This creates a significantly stronger bond than in classic hype games.

Anyone who has invested 100, 200 or 300 hours into a simulation does not in many cases simply jump to the next short-term genre trend.

Studies on player retention also show that retention strongly depends on progress, routine and social integration. Exactly these factors are particularly strongly pronounced in the simulation genre.

That is why, from my point of view, the actual analytical thesis is not that the four-year study is wrong. Rather, it could be that it is not applicable to simulators in the same form.

Perhaps simulations are simply less of a trend genre – and much more of a permanent usage genre with long-term retention.

Does the four-year cycle apply to simulators from your point of view? Do you still play ETS 2 or OMSI today? How important are DLCs and mods for you? Are simulators more long-term games for you?